This post tries to assess “the” fundamentals of the credibility of the US dollar in order to determine whether “the” recovery is under way.
This planet’s economy is in crisis since 15 August 1971 when US president Nixon broke the Bretton Woods agreements which linked the US dollar to gold at fixed parity and all of the planet’s other currencies to the dollar. Nixon unilaterally broke the link of the dollar to gold. As long as the planet’s Anglo-Saxon intellectuals refuse to deal with this problem, the crisis will continue.
As Mohamed El-Erian put it yesterday in the Financial Times, after our Masters have done whatever it takes to save irredeemable, at least unbacked, paper money and fractional-reserve banksterism, this is not the end of the story. (1)
As The Times said yesterday, the worst of recession and unemployment is yet to come. (2)
As John Gapper said yesterday on his Financial Times blog, Goldman Sachs should be allowed to fail. (3)
Not so for the Anglo-Saxon intellectuals of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). They are organising their 6th Annual Asia Pacific Convention on October 29-30, 2009 at the Four Seasons Hotel in Hong Kong.
The title or theme of the Convention is:
“Meeting the Challenges of a Recovering Global Economy”
Yes, the “recovering” global economy, they say.
One of the aims of the Convention is to gain an understanding of what the financial crisis is teaching us about risk management. (4)
Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks followed by co-ordinated and economical application of resources to minimise, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events, says Wikipedia. (5)
The “unfortunate” event we are dealing with is the quoted 15 August 1971 event.
But the organisers of the Hong Kong GARP Convention are based in London and the USA, the two pillars of the dollar regime, and are therefore not prepared to address this issue.
There is no way the planet’s economy will recover from the “crisis” as long as this planet’s Anglo-Saxon intellectuals don’t deal with that event.
“Our” debt-driven political economy will never be able to recover.
“Our Anglo-Saxon intellectuals” will never be able to have “our” economy driven, “floated” on floating currencies, I would say, towards the state they want it to be unless they deal with the “unfortunate” 1971 event.
OIL & GOLD
Meanwhile, the oil price is rising and this would endanger the imaginary recovery.
In order to maintain the credibility as world reserve currency of that piece of paper called the US dollar, our Anglo-Saxon Masters are alleging that the dollar is as good as gold (for oil).
The “fundamentals” are being overlooked because the results to which those fundamentals have in the meantime led are disastrous.
Oil and gold are the two elements which are supporting the dollar’s credibility.
“The” fundamentals are that oil is being priced in one of this planet’s currencies. The planet lives in a world of floating currencies. Still, some, like the European Central Bank, have gold reserves. Why does the ECB need these gold reserves if its currency is floating on thin air?
The question is important for those OPEC members who are also members of the Gulf Co-operation Council which is planning its common currency by 01 January 2010, date at which the European Union Lisbon Treaty should enter into force. The Treaty would make the ECB, which up till now had legal personality, a EU institution, thereby destroying whatever independence the ECB had left.
Perhaps, the ECB could start by explaining why it needs gold reserves in a world of floating currencies. How do these gold reserves determine the euro’s value in a world of currencies floating on thin air? But, as I said, the ECB is devoid of independence.
It is important that the GCC understands how its oil reserves can do the same for its single currency. Indeed, as oil is the only commodity that is large enough for gold to hide in, gold is hiding in there. Oil producers do exchange that green paper, called the petrodollar, for the yellow substance. But, again, the ECB is devoid of independence.
Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics and political science at the University of California at Berkeley, is however saying “The euro and the renminbi will match the dollar as an attractive form of reserves only when they possess equally deep and liquid markets,” (6)
Always the argument of -deep and liquid- markets !?
This is precisely the area where everything is systemically going wrong. A large debt hole is being deepened through the accumulation of a worthless equity mountain.
“Deep” means a debt-deep hole. “Liquid” means an ever-increasing debt float.
Banksters had invented fractional-reserve banksterism long before August 1971.
Since August 1971, Goldman Sachs took on more risk, says John Gapper in his quoted blog post.
Gapper also says that in last year’s crisis, the US government made clear that it stands behind Goldman and other big investment banksters.
The US dollar lacks any credibility. How can proponents of the dollar regime lead us on the way towards recovery?
Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com
http://twitter.com/ivocerckel/
NOTES
(1)
The two-stage de-risking of banks
By Mohamed El-Erian
Published: October 22 2009 13:39 | Last updated: October 22 2009 13:39
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74eb1a16-bf02-11de-8034-00144feab49a.html
(2)
From Times Online
October 22, 2009
Recession and unemployment: the worst is yet to come
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6885279.ece
(3)
Goldman should be allowed to fail
by John Gapper
October 22, 2009 12:23pm
http://blogs.ft.com/gapperblog/2009/10/goldman-should-be-allowed-to-fail/
(4)
http://www.garp.com/events/apc2009/
(5)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management
referring to
Douglas Hubbard “The FAILURE of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It” pg. 46, John Wiley & Sons, 2009
(6)
US dollar likely to remain reserve currency-paper
Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:16pm ED
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2043761020091020