Honest Money

Gold is Wealth Hiding in Oil

Archive for June, 2009

Global Weimarisation

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 14th June 2009

IMF bond plan attracts emerging countries, highlights US woes
By Hugues Honore
http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidANA20090614T030227ZJRE51
SNIP
WASHINGTON, Jun 14, 2009 (AFP) – The International Monetary Fund’s plan to issue bonds for the first time has attracted several large emerging countries looking to diversify investments to the detriment of the dollar, whose luster is dimming under the mushrooming US budget deficit. UNSNIP

Yes, more worthless fiat paper

Can you spell “Global Weimarisation”?

Again an indication that something of the nature of a revolution is coming.

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

Inflation in the Weimar Republic
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
SNIP
The inflation in the Weimar Republic was a period of hyperinflation in Germany (the Weimar Republic) during 1921-1923.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

The Lecce Framework – Update 3

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 13th June 2009

Update 1 added clairvoyance

Update 2 added Steinbrueck

Update 3 adds visions of increased signs of stabilisation

Whereas the invisible hand of FreeGold,
the marking to market of their freely floating gold reserves by individuals, corporations and guv’mints,
would provide for the adequate  propriety, integrity and transparency in the global economy,
our Masters are deeming it appropriate to achieve these objectives through force,

LECCE, Italy, June 13 (Reuters)
Following is a draft statement, obtained by Reuters, from the Group of Eight finance ministers’ meeting in southern Italy.
SNIP
While the stabilization of the economy over the short term is critical, we also discussed other challenges ahead of us. The crisis has revealed that there are some fundamental weaknesses in the global economy related to propriety, integrity and transparency. To address these issues in a comprehensive fashion, we have agreed on the need to develop the Lecce Framework – a set of common principles and standards governing the conduct of international business and finance – which builds on existing initiatives and lays the foundation for a stable growth path over the long term (1)

Those people think they will be clairvoyant.
At one moment, they say, they will know that recovery is certain.

The world’s rich nations have started to consider how they will unwind emergency steps to rescue their economies once recovery is certain, according to a draft statement from a meeting of Group of Eight finance ministers on Saturday. (2)

They have visions of increased signs of stabilisation

G8 finance ministers on Saturday agreed that their economies were showing “increased signs of stabilisation” and for the first time started to craft exit strategies to counter the inflationary impact of their stimulus measures. (3)

BUT
there is no reason yet for optimism, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Saturday. (4)

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

NOTES

(1)
Lecce G8 finance ministers’ draft statement
Reuters, Saturday June 13 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8556726

(2)
G8 considers how to move out of crisis mode
Sat Jun 13, 2009 6:48am EDT
LECCE, Italy (Reuters) -
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55B4G420090613

(3)
G8 prepares for global recovery
By Guy Dinmore in Lecce, Italy
Published: June 13 2009 12:32 | Last updated: June 13 2009 12:32
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24e2969a-5808-11de-8cbb-00144feabdc0.html

(4)
G8: German Fin Min: No Reason Yet For Optimistic View On Econ
JUNE 13, 2009, 7:33 A.M. ET
LECCE, Italy (Dow Jones)–
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090613-701201.html

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Latvian and GCC barter

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 13th June 2009

Saudi Arabia is angry at the United Arab Emirates for not having joined Gulf Co-operation Council Monetary Union.

Saudi Arabia makes border crossing into Saudi Arabia by UAE truckers more difficult. (1)  (2)

Latvia is angry at central banksters who pegged the Latvian currency, the lat, to the euro and who are now in the process of de-pegging.

In Latvia, bartering is returning to some areas because cash is running out. (3)

Yes, (gold hiding in) oil is a good bartering tool for the GCC Monetary Union also.

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

NOTES

(1)
End border mess, GCC urged
By Jumana Al Tamimi, Associate Editor
Published: June 11, 2009, 23:04
http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/General/10322088.html
Dubai: The UAE has officially requested that the GCC mediate to help solve the problem of trucks backing up at the UAE border with Saudi Arabia.
“On Wednesday we received an official request from the UAE Federal Customs Authority, asking the Secretariat to intervene to solve the problem of the long queues of trucks at the UAE border waiting for clearance before crossing into Saudi Arabia,” Mohammad Al Haif, Director of the Customs Union at the GCC Secretariat, told Gulf News.
+
The truck issue comes amid reports of tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the choice of Saudi Arabia as the site of the future Gulf Central Bank, instead of the UAE.
The UAE has not joined Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar in their agreement on the common GCC currency.
Mohammad Al Mazroui, GCC Assistant Secretary General for Economic Affairs, told Gulf News: “I don’t believe there is any connection between the border issue and the UAE position with regard to the bank location.”
“The build-up of trucks happens every now and then,” he said. “There must be reasons for this and once we discover them, we will be able to solve the problem.”
Al Haif dismissed speculation that the truck issue has a political background. Referring to the dispute, he said: “We did not see tension during the official meeting that took place last week of the joint committee that is responsible for the Customs Union.”

(2)
Saudi bullying denied as border queue grows
Jun 13, 2009 at 06:35
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000005266/Saudi_bullying_denied_as_border_queue_grows/Article.htm
SNIP
A senior figure at the GCC customs secretariat has denied rumours that Saudi Arabia is reminding the UAE of its junior status to the Kingdom by ramping up border security between the two countries.

(3)
From The Times
June 11, 2009
Prime Minister of Latvia struggles to save country from bankruptcy
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6473253.ece

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Repeal central banking now!

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 13th June 2009

The Latvian crisis is a banking crisis. (1)

Banks used to have the right to issue receipts for the gold they held in reserve in warehouse.
This right was taken away from them by the institution of central banks. (2)

Central banksters are unable to perform that task.

Bartering is therefore returning in Latvia to some areas because cash is running out. (3)

People are returning to the status quo ante, before central banking appeared on the scene.

This will allow them to grasp what money stands for.

Economists know that money is defined by the functions it performs, as a means of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value. (4)

Slowly but surely, we may reach the right conclusions.

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

(1)
G-8 Divided on Stimulus Exit Strategies, Bank Tests (Update1)
By Rainer Buergin and Flavia Krause-Jackson
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aftE0YOTjnYs
SNIP
June 13 (Bloomberg) — Group of Eight finance ministers meet today amid divisions over how soon to start unwinding their economic rescue packages and whether Europe should subject banks to tougher stress tests.

(2)
Roland Leuschel and Claus Vogt, “Das Greenspan Dossier, Wie die US-Notenbank das Weltwährungssystem gefährdet. Oder: Inflation um jeden Preis”, http://www.finanzbuchverlag.de, 2006, 3rd ed., p. 299

(3)
From The Times
June 11, 2009
Prime Minister of Latvia struggles to save country from bankruptcy
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6473253.ece

(4)
International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen for 2002
Acceptance speech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, Aachen, 9 May 2002
http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Latvian lessons for GMU

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 11th June 2009

The Gulf Co-operation Council Monetary Union should link its currencIES to its gold reserves hiding in oil

Gulf union advised to de-peg
Travis Pantin
The National, 11 June 2009
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090610/BUSINESS/706109912/-1/NEWS
SNIP
Gulf states should use the planned GCC monetary union as an opportunity to de-peg their currencies from the dollar, two international banks said yesterday. UNSNIP

De-peg from the dollar and re-peg to a basket?

What’s the use?

The issuer of a currency needs reserves in order to determine the value of that currency.

Without reserves to that effect, the currency administered by the issuer has no value whatsoever.

Does Latvia have such reserves?

No apparently. Latvia has no gold reserves.

The issuer of the lat, the currency in Latvia
which is (still – for how long I don’t know) PEGGED to the euro,
has only foreign exchange, forex, reserves.

Forex reserves consisting of worthless paper money can only possibly be used for intervention on forex markets.

Such reserves are worthless, no, useless, to determine the value of the lat.

Only gold reserves can determine the value of a currency.

Latvia has no gold reserves.

The (intrinsic) value of the lat is ZERO.

Sweden is close to Latvia and Swedish banks have apparently extended loans to Latvians,

The European Central Bank is now supplying €3bn ($4.2bn) to the Swedish Riksbank to boost its FOREIGN RESERVES – increasing its firepower to help Swedish private sector banks if necessary, says the Financial Times. (1)  Reuters says it’s to safeguard financial stability. (2)

The contraction of Latvia’s economy led to speculation that it would be forced to SEVER THE LINK between the lat and the euro. (3)

The euro is the first currency that has not only SEVERED ITS LINK TO GOLD, but also its link to the nation-state, said the late ECB-president Wim Duisenberg on 9 May 2002. (4)

Latvia must sever the link to the euro which has severed the link to gold.

Latvia must re-link to gold?

For the ECB, its gold reserves are freely floating
and marked to market (-price),
not marked to model of 40-something dollar an ounce like in the US of A,
on a regular basis.

Oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in. Gold reserves are therefore hiding in oil reserves.

The GCC Central Bank should therefore link its currencIES to its gold reserves hiding in oil.

But the architects of GMU want to link the currencIES to a basket of forex reserves.

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

NOTES

(1)
ECB lends €3bn to Swedish bank
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt, Joshua Chaffin in Brussels and Robert Anderson in Stockholm
Published: June 10 2009 11:55 | Last updated: June 10 2009 23:59
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad578092-55a8-11de-ab7e-00144feabdc0.html
The €3bn ($4.2bn. £2.6bn) the ECB is supplying to the Riksbank will be used to boost the Swedish central bank’s FOREIGN RESERVES – increasing its firepower to help Swedish private sector banks if necessary.

(2)
Sweden cbank takes ECB loan; banks pass stress test
Reuters, Wednesday June 10 2009

Swedish cbank to take 3 bln euro loan from ECB
Swedish watchdog: banks can handle worst-case scenario
Says banks can absorb 150 bln SEK of losses in Baltics
Sees no need for capital strengthening by top banks
(Adds analyst comment, updates crown, shares)
By Niklas Pollard and Eva Odefalk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8551024
SNIP
STOCKHOLM, June 10 (Reuters) – Sweden’s central bank said on Wednesday it would take out a hefty loan from the European Central Bank to safeguard financial stability, although a watchdog said local banks could cope with “extreme” pressures.

(3)
From The Times
June 9, 2009
Latvia budget cuts ease fears of Sweden’s nervous banks
Carl Mortished
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6458670.ece

(4)
International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen for 2002
Acceptance speech by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, Aachen, 9 May 2002
http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html

Posted in Uncategorized | 13 Comments »

Le partage du risque selon la finance islamique

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 8th June 2009

Elyès Jouini et Olivier Pastré
La finance islamique : Une solution à la crise ?
Paris, Economica, 2009

L ‘ouvrage accepte la thèse objectiviste pour déterminer la loi (nationale) applicable à un contrat.

Pour déterminer le rôle de la monnaie, l’ouvrage adopte une démarche se centrant sur le sujet, une démarche subjective qui, à l’instar d’Héraclite (décédé 480 avant JC), ne voit dans le réel que multiplicité et mouvement. Un agent accepte de la monnaie en échange d’un bien qu’il cède parce qu’il sait que les autres agents l’accepteront en échange d’un bien qu’il souhaite acquérir.

La philosophie musulmane condamne tout taux d’intérêt, qu’il soit usuraire ou non. (page 19)

La finance islamique est une invention des années 1970 et qui consiste à élaborer des constructions juridiques pour contourner les prohibitions sacrées.

Pour démontrer qu’en finance islamique, la monnaie est un simple instrument nécessaire pour créer de la valeur réelle et ne remplit pas le rôle de transfert inter-temporel de valeur, mais permet de transférer le risque d’une partie au contrat à l’autre, permet à une partie au contrat de dévorer les biens de l’autre, l’ouvrage se base sur un rapport de juin 2000 de Mahmoud Amin El Gamal, professeur d’économie et de statistiques à Rice University à Houston au Texas, “A Basic Guide to Contemporary Islamic Banking and Finance”, où selon nos auteurs, page 20, El Gamal enseigne, page 4, que ce n’est que comme garant, tout au plus, des échanges et de la tradition réciproque [que la monnaie] a été [appelée] dans le monde.

Ce rapport El Gamal est disponible sur internet et la page 4, ni aucune autre page, ne contient ce que nos auteurs prétendent. Il y a moyen de chercher le rapport pour “money” et cela donne: ” [the] notion that there is no time-value for wealth in Islam is false, [...]. The notion that money is sterile (does not grow by itself) and has no time value is ‘in fact’ part of the traditional doctrine of the Catholic Church, and rather alien to Islam “.

Le droit français est tributaire du droit romain. La conclusion de l’ouvrage nous dit que le droit romain est plus proche du droit islamique que ne l’est le droit anglo-saxon.

Le droit est l’inclination constante et perpétuelle d’accorder à chacun son droit, disait Ulpien (décédé 228 après JC), selon la transposition de saint Thomas. Lorsque l’une des parties doit travailler pour fournir à l’autre un produit ou un service et que l’autre partie offre une chose sans valeur en paiement, l’autre s’accapare injustement des biens d’autrui, ce que le Saint Coran interdit au Verset 161 de la Sourate An-Nisaa.

En France, tout contrat est nécessairement rattaché à la loi d’un Etat (Cour permanente de Justice Internationale, 12 juillet 1929, en cause Emprunts serbes et brésiliens; Cass. fr., 21 juin 1950, en cause Messageries maritimes), ce que confirme, pour le Royaume-Uni, un arrêt du 28 janvier 2004 de la Court of Appeal en cause Shamil Bank of Bahrain c. Beximco Pharmaceuticals, invoqué par l’ouvrage.

En 1960, le doyen Henri Batiffol enseignait toujours dans les “Mélanges offerts à Jacques Maury” que pour déterminer le droit applicable à un contrat en cas d’absence de choix de loi, il existe deux thèses. Pour la thèse subjectiviste, c’est la volonté présumée des parties qui détermine la loi applicable. Pour la thèse objectiviste c’est le lien le plus étroit avec le contrat, the “most real connection”, qui, en l’absence de sélection d’un droit applicable, détermine le droit applicable, “the proper law of the contract”.

Mais si la thèse subjectiviste accorde toujours aux parties la faculté de choisir la loi applicable, ce n’est que pour autant que cette loi applicable émane d’un Etat. (C.P.J.I. et Cass., cit.)

Le droit de la finance islamique n’émane pas d’un Etat et n’est pas codifié.

Dans la cause devant la Court of Appeal les contrats prévoyaient en ce qui concerne la loi applicable: “subject to the principles of the glorious Shari’a, the agreements will be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England.”  La Cour refuse d’appliquer le droit de la Charia parce qu’un contrat doit être construit sur base de règles de droit explicites. La violation de la Charia, règles de droit non-explicites, par les contrats litigieux ne peut donc entrainer leur nullité.

L’ouvrage mentionne page 21 les différences d’interprétation entre les systèmes juridiques des différents états musulmans.

L’ouvrage dit page 75 que la situation de la Malaisie est assez exceptionnelle. Il ne mentionne pas qu’il existe, en Malaisie, un cadre législatif de juridictions mixtes et de systèmes légaux mixtes. Le droit financier et bancaire de la Charia y a été codifié par le Islamic Banking Act 1983 (IBA) et le Banking and Financial Institutions Act 1989 (BAFIA). Tout tribunal malaisien a une obligation constitutionnelle de veiller à la conformité des instruments islamiques aux IBA et BAFIA.

Rien n’empêche les acteurs de la finance islamique voulant agir sur la Place de Paris d’opter pour l’application des IBA et BAFIA. Mais dans ce cas, les parties doivent également se conformer ou se soumettre à la jurisprudence malaisienne applicable.

Une des constructions juridiques les plus répandues pour contourner les prohibitions sacrées est le contrat de Mourabaha. La Mourabaha est une transaction qui suppose que le créancier (la banque) achète un actif donné pour le compte d’un client (le débiteur). Par la suite, le créancier revend cet actif au débiteur moyennant un (des) paiement(s) (échelonnés ou non sur une période donnée) à un prix convenu d’avance entre les deux. L’ouvrage reconnait, page 26, que certains spécialistes contestent le caractère islamique des opérations de Mourabaha.
Al Bai Bithaman Ajil (BBA) est une variante de la Mourabaha qui permet à la banque d’octroyer des paiements différés au client.

L’ouvrage, publié en 2009, ne mentionne pas le jugement du 18 juillet 2008 de la High Court de Malaisie, en cause Arab-Malaysian Finance c. Taman Ihsan Jaya Sdn Bhd & Ors, par lequel le juge Abdul Wahab Patail dit que la partie profit du contrat de BBA viole les IBA et BAFIA. Pour ce faire, le juge dit que la nature véritable d’un contrat ou d’une transaction ne se déduit pas de sa structure ni des termes qu’il emploie, mais se déduit de sa substance. C’est la volonté présumée des parties qui détermine la loi applicable.

En application de cette thèse “subjectiviste”, le tribunal dit au paragraphe 68 de son jugement que lorsque la banque achète les biens d’équipement ou les marchandises demandés par le client et les lui revend ensuite, cette vente ne constitue pas une vente de bonne foi, mais une transaction de financement élaborée pour contourner les prohibitions sacrées.

Si les acteurs de la finance islamique agissent sur la Place de Paris et optent dès lors pour l’application des IBA et BAFIA, ils doivent se rendre compte que la question de leur bonne foi sera importante pour déterminer la validité de l’instrument qu’elles ont choisi pour contourner les prohibitions sacrées.

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Latvia and GMU

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 8th June 2009

This time it’s different, or is it?

fallacy of equivocation?

The signing of a landmark accord on GCC Monetary Union among four members of the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) did not wait until today Monday 8 June 2009 but occurred on Sunday evening in Riyadh.

The agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar provides for the establishment of the GCC Monetary Council this year that will pave the way for setting up of the Gulf Central Bank. (1)

Abdul Rahman Al-Attiya, GCC Secretary General, announced that the Gulf single currency would be pegged to the dollar. (2)

As the Financial Times reports this morning concerning Latvia:
When the immovable object of a fixed exchange rate meets the irresistible force of market sentiment, it is usually the market that wins.
But each time a crisis emerges, precedent does not stop the authorities behind a particular fixed exchange rate from arguing that in their case things will be different. (3)

Will my contradictor argue that for Latvia the euro is “too strong”, whereas for the GCC minus Two the dollar is “too weak” and that therefore the GCC case should be distinguished from the Latvia case?

In logic, the fallacy of equivocation consists in using one word in several senses or with a different “suppositio” (4) in different instances. (5)

Has the word “peg” different meanings?

Just in from the Financial Times:
The Saudi press agency reported that the ministers had signed an agreement on the union in a closed meeting but gave no further details on matters such as timing or on how reserves or debt would be managed. (6)

Who was that lunatic again who’s arguing that
the GCC minus Two should mark its (gold hiding in) oil
(oil being the only commodity that is large enough for gold to hide in)
reserves to market and not to model like the US of A?

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

NOTES

(1)
Monetary union pact signed
Ghazanfar Ali Khan | Arab News
Monday 8 June 2009 (14 Jumada al-Thani 1430
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=123381&d=8&m=6&y=2009

(2)
4 GCC states sign monetary accord
Saudi Gazette report
Monday, 08 June 2009 – 15 Jumada Al-Akhir 1430 H
FRONT PAGE
http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2009060840226

(3)
IMF and EU can help avert panic over Latvia
By Stefan Wagstyl In London
Published: June 7 2009 20:02 | Last updated: June 7 2009 20:02
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8e185968-5391-11de-be08-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html

(4)
Suppositio is a medieval term for the subject of a proposition, or that for which the general term in subject position stands.
http://www.answers.com/topic/suppositio

(5)
Juan Jose Sanguineti, “Logic”, Manila, Sinag-Tala Publishers, (first published in 1982 in Spanish by the Ediciones Universidad de Navarra in Pamplona), 1992, p. 169

(6)
Gulf states sign agreement on monetary union
By Abeer Allam in Riyadh
Published: June 8 2009 02:32 | Last updated: June 8 2009 02:32
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fedb6bdc-53a9-11de-be08-00144feabdc0.html
SNIP
Foreign ministers of four Gulf Arab states formally agreed in Riyadh on Sunday to form a monetary union, in a show of unity to underline their commitment to the scheme after the United Arab Emirates pulled out last month.

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »

Oil Backing and Oil Billing – Update 1

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 7th June 2009

Update 1 adds two endnotes

Tell them
what you want to be paid in
and
what your gold reserve stands for.

IF
the Gulf Co-operation Council minus Two decides at its Riyadh Summit tomorrow Monday 08 June 2009 to have its currencies, within the GCC Monetary Union, BACKED by its oil reserves
(since oil is the only commodity that is large enough for gold to hide in, gold is hiding in there),

THEN
it should also BILL those depleting reserves in that currency.

There is no currency. There are four currencies.

Well, there is the euro.

This blogger seems to remember that he has been writing in the past that the architects (1) of the euro wanted it (the euro) to have freely floating gold reserves marked to market,
not to the model of 40-something dollar an ounce like the US of A,
on a regular basis. (2)

In euroland, the yuppies (3) had a long run-up period to the ECU with their convergence criteria.

Everybody continues to pay oil and gas in dollar, because nobody bills oil and gas in anything else.

Some seller has to rise up and declare in “what” he wants to be paid.

Only then can the Revolution start …

The phoenix must also make clear how his currency relates to his gold reserve.

He should make clear that his gold reserve is his wealth collateral.

Oman and the United Arab Emirates are afraid to set up an anti-dollar coalition.

And then they were four …

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

NOTES

(1)
The ECB bureaucrats should not be confused with the architects of the euro.

ECB succession has timely lessons for GCC union
By Dr Mohamed A Ramady
Last Updated: June 06. 2009 9:33PM UAE / June 6. 2009 5:33PM GMT
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090606/BUSINESS/706069917/1058&template=columnists
SNIP
What happens at the European Central Bank (ECB) and the way succession there is managed could be a salutary lesson for the remaining Gulf countries that are hoping to establish their own regional central banks.
The adage that the devil makes work for idle hands has been rarely truer than for Europe’s bureaucrats.

(2)
FreeGold versus IMF
June 2008
http://bphouse.com/honest_money/freegold-versus-imf/
(If the link does not work, try to copy it and to paste it in your browser OR click on top of this page on the “FreeGold versus IMF”-link)
SNIP
The ECB wants FreeGold as an alternative to the IMF-supported dollar regime.
The ECB does this by letting Gold remain an important element of the euro’s reserves, but by severing the euro’s link not only link to Gold, but also its link to the nation-state.

(3)
I did not belong to them. In those days, I was an opponent of the euro.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

dollar to die within three years

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 6th June 2009

IMF straitjacket is irrelevant for GMU

US of A dollar will be reduced to its intrinsic value within 36 months

The Gulf Monetary Union pact is to be signed on Monday 08 June 2009 (1), but will not include the Gulf Co-operation Council single currency which has been knocked back for 3 years (2).

Indeed, there are other Monetary Unions than Monetary Unions which fit into the International Monetary Fund-straitjacket.

I understand that the IMF has not yet severed the link between currency and gold and is still defining the US of A dollar as a certain quantity of gold.

Since oil is the only commodity that is large enough for gold to hide in, gold is hiding in there. Every increase in the price in the price of gold thus leads to an increase in price of oil.

If GCC oil reserves would be the backing of the GCC currencIES, every increase in the  price of gold would lead to an increase in the value of the (oil-)reserves of the GCC curriencIES and thus to an increase in the value of the GCC currencIES themselves.

If the GCC marks its gold reserves to market, whereas the US of A dollar, to which the GCC currencIES would remain pegged (in a basket), marks them to the model of $42 or so an ounce, we would have a contradiction in the GCC currencIES system.

Does that explain why the launch of the GCC single currency, but not the GMU, has been knocked back until …?

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

NOTES

(1)
Gulf monetary union pact to be signed Monday
Jun 05, 2009 at 19:35
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000004769/Gulf_monetary_union_pact_to_be_signed_Monday/Article.htm

(2)
GCC single currency knocked back 3 years
Jun 06, 2009 at 07:56
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000004786/GCC_single_currency_knocked_back_3_years/Article.htm

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments »

Merkel, GMU and common sense

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 6th June 2009

As Europe is on the brink of collapse, it is up to the GCC to show the road to a root-and-branch reform of the system. The GCC has the opportunity on Monday 08 June 2009 in Riyadh to declare that its (gold hiding in) oil reserves are the reserves of the Khaleeji.

German chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Tuesday 02 June 2009 about the expansive monetary policy run by the European Central Bank and wanted a return to common sense instead sowing the seeds of the next downturn by proceeding to credit expansion and agreeing under international pressure to buying bonds. (1)

I thought a central bank needs reserves in order to provide some value for the currency it administers.

Forex, foreign exchange, reserves would however appear to be a measure of a country’s ability to service obligations and engage in commercial transactions with the rest of the world.

I don’t understand that argument and I am unable to find an explanation. (help welcome!)

I am told that in trade between countries, payments are made through central banks, i.e., not between buyers and sellers, but between central banks.

While German chancellor Angela Merkel is calling upon our (European-) central-bank Masters to return to common sense,
the Gulf-Co-operation Council (GCC) cannot lay the groundwork for its Gulf Monetary Union (GMU). (2) (3)

Perhaps the GCC could return to the common sense of viewing its (gold hiding in) oil reserves
NOT as a measure of the GCC’s ability to service obligations and engage in commercial transactions with the rest of the world
BUT as the backing of the freely floating Khaleeji, the GCC single currency.

Since oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in, gold is hiding in there. Every increase in the price in the price of gold leads to an increase in the price of oil. If the GCC oil reserves are then the backing of the Khaleeji, every increase in the price of gold will lead to an increase in the value of the reserves of the Khaleeji and thus to an increase in the value of the Khaleeji itself.

This could prevent a situation like this week in Britain where theft by the party of labour results in sterling tumbling. (4)

Common sense could even dictate that GMU does not require a single currency.

As  Europe is on the brink of collapse (5),
it is up the GCC to show the road to root-and-branch reform of the system (6)

And yes, the GCC minus two is meeting on Monday 08 June 2009 in Riyadh. (2) (3)

The GCC has the opportunity to do what it should do.

The GCC has the opportunity to declare that its (gold hiding in) oil reserves are the reserves of the Khaleeji.

Ivo Cerckel
honestmoney@maktoob.com

(1)
Merkel’s central bank bombshell sparks debt debate
By William Ickes – 8 hours ago
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g31KKj_f1oIivXSqTDMc8I-snXdg
FRANKFURT (AFP) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have sought to score political points by slamming central banks last week, butshe also echoed fears over growing public debt and waning bank independence.
Merkel shocked financial markets when she said in Berlin: “We need to get back to an independent central bank policy and a policy of common sense.”
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Merkel and others in Germany feel that pushing up deficits to fight the economic crisis will fuel inflation and sow the seeds of the next crisis.

(2)
Currency union pact to be signed Monday
http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2009060640072
SNIP
RIYADH – An accord on monetary union among four members of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council will be signed Monday, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) quoted GCC Secretary General Abdurrahman Al-Attiyah as saying Friday.
On May 20 the United Arab Emirates pulled out of the proposed monetary union. Oman announced in 2007 that it would not join.
The signing had originally been planned for Sunday but will now take place during a meeting in Riyadh of GCC foreign ministers.

(3)
Gulf monetary union pact to be signed Monday
Jun 05, 2009 at 19:35
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000004769/Gulf_monetary_union_pact_to_be_signed_Monday/Article.htm
SNIP
An accord on monetary union among four members of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council will be signed on Monday, GCC chief Abdurrahman al-Attiyah said on Friday, the SPA news agency reported.
On May 20 the United Arab Emirates pulled out of the proposed monetary union in a major blow to plans to forge a single regional currency. Oman announced in 2007 that it would not join.
The remaining four members of the energy-rich GCC are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The signing had originally been planned for Sunday but will now take place during a meeting in Riyadh of GCC foreign ministers.
The UAE had expressed reservations over the monetary union after an informal GCC meeting in Saudi Arabia on May 5 decided that Riyadh, which is home to the GCC headquarters, would host the future banking authority.
The UAE, in particular Dubai, is a major financial and commercial hub and had harboured ambitions of doing so.

(4)
From The Times
June 6, 2009
Pound slides as Westminster’s woes weigh heavily
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6440625.ece
The pound tumbled back below $1.60 yesterday, ending a rollercoaster week with a second day of steep losses, as the wave of resignations rocking Gordon Brown’s Government put the currency under heavy selling pressure.

(5)
From The Times
June 4, 2009
The great bailout – Europe’s best-kept secret
Germany is at the heart of a huge plan to prop up crippled EU economies – not that the German people would ever know
Anatole Kaletsky
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article6426565.ece
Europe is now in the middle of a perfect storm – a confluence of three separate, but interconnected economic crises which threaten far greater devastation than Britain or America have suffered from the credit crunch: the collapse of German industry and employment, the impending bankruptcy of Central European homeowners and businesses; and the threat of government debt defaults from loss of monetary control by the Irish Republic, Greece and Portugal, for instance on the eurozone periphery.

(6)
We’re still waiting for a banking shake-up
So far, the punishment meted out to the banking sector does not fit the crime, suggests Edmund Conway.
By Edmund Conway
Published: 7:14PM BST 03 Jun 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/edmundconway/5438638/Were-still-waiting-for-a-banking-shake-up.html
The amount of debt incurred by governments is enough to pay for a world war.
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Finance is both complex and essential for the world economy, but it is not a sacred cow. It does not have a monopoly on intelligence (who could claim otherwise, given the scale of its recent failures?). To suggest that we can get away without a root-and-branch reform of the system is simply wrong. We will need a far-reaching combination of smarter regulation and smarter banking laws. I hope that in the wake of the expenses scandal, and in the dying light of this Government, we don’t forget this lesson.

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