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Gold is Wealth Hiding in Oil

Archive for December, 2008

recession hysteria will deliver hyper-inflation

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 10th December 2008

“Our” bankers are still not realising that their undercapitalised institutions which daily commit the crime of fractional-reserve banking are slowly dying from dollar poison.

Here’s a Khaleej Times article of today, 10 December 2008, which quotes a report by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) arguing that the UAE will be able to tide over the global economic melt-down as the country is well-positioned to maintain fiscal surplus in 2008 and 2009 since it has the lowest “break-even oil price” in the GCC of $23 (Dh84.48) per barrel against the IMF’s baseline petroleum price projection of $68 per barrel for 2009. (1)

Look, the article mentions the oil price also in dirham. Why is that?

The very large volume of hysteria which has been raised predicting a coming “recession” is probably the clearest indication that the USA central bank, the Fed, is going to go insane in the opposite direction. Think about it. The Fed doubled the [USA] money supply during the decade of the 1980s. Here in 12 weeks, the Fed has multiplied Federal Reserve Credit by 2.5, times with Dallas Fed chief Richard Fischer predicting a triple by the end of December.
So, if you have one ounce of common sense, you know that the “error” the Fed makes this time will be the same “error” they make every time: TOO MUCH MONEY. (2)

This means inflation. This means a rising gold price, thus a rising price of the reserves of the Khaleej dinar, thus a rising value of the Khaleej dinar.

The recession hysteria will lead our Masters to hyper-inflate their currencies.

This is what reflation is about.

Will this lead to an economic crash?

What will happen after that?

As a first step, the Khaleej Times article which I quoted above mentions the price of oil in dirham.

Ivo Cerckel

NOTES

(1)
UAE Can Maintain Fiscal Surplus at $23 Oil
Khaleej Times 10 December 2008
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20081210042914/
DUBAI – UAE will be able to tide over the the global economic melt-down as the country is well-positioned to maintain fiscal surplus in 2008 and 2009 since it has the lowest “break-even oil price” in the GCC of $23 (Dh84.48) per barrel against the IMF’s baseline petroleum price projection of $68 per barrel for 2009, a report by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) said.

(2)
Gold – on the Cusp
By Howard Katz
Dec 8 2008 11:26AM
http://www.kitco.com/ind/katz/dec082008.html

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The way forward for Kuwait

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 10th December 2008

The way forward for Kuwait to achieve decent oil prices.

Kuwait will take precautionary measures to counter the present economic crisis following the Eid holidays. (1)

In view of the current worldwide economic situation, especially concerning oil prices, Kuwait will formulate a financial plan that will help insulate the country against any instances of recession due to the fall in oil prices.  (1, again)

The current worldwide economic situation is due to the phenomena of unbacked paper money (the metaphor of “printing” money is still being used for worthless digital liquidity representing “money”) and fractional-reserve banking.

The solution to this problem is that the 29 and 30 December 2008 Muscat, GCC Summit, where the 2009 Gulf Monetary Council (GMC), a precursor to the 2010 Gulf Central Bank (GCB), will be set up, will pool the GCC gold reserves, make this pool the reserves of the Khaleej dinar and periodically mark these reserves to market (-price).

In that case, every increase in the price of gold, will lead to an increase in the value (of the reserves) of the Khaleej dinar.

Gold is hiding in oil because oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in.

If the Muscat GCC Summit decides to pool the GCC gold reserves, make this pool the reserves of the Khaleej dinar and periodically mark these reserves to market (-price),
then every increase in the price of gold will automatically lead to an increase in the price of oil.

By same token, the present indecently low USA dollar-denominated oil prices will immediately come to an end.

Ivo Cerckel

(1)
Kuwait: Emergency financial steps after Eid
Kuwait Times
08 December 2008
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20081210051151/Emergency%20financial%20steps%20in%20Kuwait%20after%20Eid

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OECD and reopening of UAE markets

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 10th December 2008

There are signs that the nine-day holiday that started on December 2 was a good breather for United Arab Emirates (UAE) investors. The UAE markets are poised to open on a positive note when trading resumes tomorrow, Thursday, helped by several governments around the world announcing stimulus packages, says Gaurav Ghose, Financial Features Editor at Gulf News. (1)

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says that the USA economy is still facing “sharp downside risks” to growth and that another fiscal stimulus could be needed if things get worse. The big rate cuts by the USA central bank, the Fed, “appear to be roughly appropriate in light of the adverse effect on real activity” of the credit squeeze, and “monetary policy should remain highly accommodative for quite some time to support the economy and the financial system”, says the OECD. (2)

Gulf News says that the stimulus packages have helped the mood of investors.

The OECD says that another fiscal stimulus could be needed if things get worse.

But once the USA economy would revive as a result of the stimuli, the Fed will have to raise interest rates in order to curb inflation.

At the same time, the USA government will have to take steps to reduce public debt.

How will that circle be squared?

Ivo Cerckel

NOTES

(1)
Investors ready to trade as nine-day breather ends
By Gaurav Ghose, Financial Features Editor
Published: December 09, 2008, 23:38
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Markets/10266012.html

(2)
US faces deep problems, OECD says
By Steve Schifferes, Economics reporter, BBC News
Page last updated at 10:53 GMT, Tuesday, 9 December 2008
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7772794.stm

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oil is for sale only against payment in gold

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 9th December 2008

QUOTES

“Moreover, by implication, it would also be the end of the irredeemable dollar as we know it. I am convinced that the managers of the irredeemable dollar are not afraid that their prodigious dollar proliferation policy endangers the value of the currency, Quantity Theory of Money notwithstanding. What they are afraid of is that the gold bulls will force Comex to close its gold window by cornering the supply of gold certificates. When that happens, it will be not only “gold is not for sale at any price” but also
“oil is for sale only against payment in gold”.
+
“The “last contango in Washington” refers to the end of the hegemony of the irredeemable dollar that is in no position to throw its weight around any more. The advent of backwardation means that a writing has appeared on the wall: “Mene tekel, upharsin”: the dollar has been weighed and found wanting. On the last day of this year of economic and financial surprises we shall know whether the backwardation in gold is permanent, or whether it will become permanent only after the inauguration of the new president, at the expiration of the next active gold futures contract in February.”

( Has The Curtain Fallen On The Last Contango In Washington?
Posted Monday, 8 December 2008
Source: GoldSeek.com Copyright © 2008
by Antal E. Fekete
Gold Standard University Live
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228744800.php )

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Amero to replace USA and Canadian dollar and Mexican peso

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 9th December 2008

Your savings in dollar? – soon to be worthless

Engllish -language video with Spanish subtitles:
Hal Turner muestra el Amero – 08:33 – 08/10/2008
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=es

Text document:
Amero Uproar
http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp
SNIP
Claim:   The U.S. has been producing the “Amero,” money to be used by an economic union of the USA, Canada, and Mexico.

Sierra Madre (usagold.com 08December2008; 16:23)
Cytek and all: thoughts on the Amero…
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/
1. The “Amero notes” that Hal Turner presents, could easily be manufactured in any of thousands of computer design equipments. They might be totally false.
2. Devaluation of 90%, as predicted by GEAB, “Global European Anticipation Bulletin” is a quite logical move for a country that has gotten itself into such a mess as the US has on its hands.
3. However, the US cannot do what any other “banana republic” can do as a matter of course. Under “Banana republics” I classify, for instance, Argentina as well as dozens of minor economies in the world.
4. A 90% devaluation would not only directly impoverish Americans immediately, it would also devalue by 90% the value of international reserves held in Dollars by C.Bs. around the world. Also devalued, would be enormous holdings of Dollars by foreign corporations and individuals. About 60%, at least, of International Reserves held by Central Banks – $6.7 Trillion dollars – are held in Dollars. That means that $4 Trillion of Reserves would turn out to be worth only $400 billion.
5. A move such as this would inevitably provoke the hostility of C.Bs. around the world. The US would be, at a stroke, an outcast and enemy of the rest of the world.
6. Such a move does not correspond with the “neocon” objectives for the US as an imperial power, an objective that has not been abandoned.
7. For these reasons, I continue to disbelieve Hal Turner’s allegations.
8. Just to be on the safe side – hold GOLD! (And silver, too.)
SIERRA

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Qatar and IIF don’t get it

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 9th December 2008

How could regulation have prevented this crisis?

We are in a systemic financial crisis.
This crisis is due to the phenomena of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking.
If we want to solve the crisis, we have to replace these phenomena with something which has value and which is not fraudulent.

Not so for Qatar, nor for the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF).

Qatar, where the central bank is still responsible for banking regulation, is reconsidering the structure of a new super-regulator. (1)

The IFF says that, despite the recent plunge in oil prices, the six Gulf Co-operation Council states are in control of massive funds to allow them to intervene and prevent the collapse of key regional banks. (2)

Qatar and the IIF are not interested in solving this crisis.

Qatar and the IIF want to save/preserve the existing riba-system of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking at all cost.

Ivo Cerckel

(1)
Financial sector: Regulators seek the right framework
By James Drummond
Published: December 8 2008 16:34 | Last updated: December 8 2008 16:34
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/49469108-c4bf-11dd-8124-000077b07658,s01=1.html
SNIP
But the events of recent months have caused the authorities to reconsider the structure of a new super-regulator. The central bank, still responsible for banking regulation, is a traditional institution. But its strict formulations are credited with maintaining liquidity – so far – in the local banking system.

(2)
GCC will not allow bank collapses amid global financial crisis
By Nadim Kawach  on Monday, December 08, 2008
http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2008/12/Pages/12082008_090a25f034104540b0bbd6e79db00c43.aspx
SNIP
Despite the recent plunge in oil prices, the six Gulf Cooperation Council states are in control of massive funds to allow them to intervene and prevent the collapse of key regional banks, the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a study.

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Islamic gold dinar, Oil, and Khaleej dinar – first exploration

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 8th December 2008

The present weaknesses in the financial system led Malaysia last week to urge Organisation of the Islamic Conference member countries to reconsider the use of the gold dinar for trade, especially with uncertainties in the international currency market.  (1)

The 26 March 2002 proposal of former Malaysian prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to settle international trade balances in Islamic gold dinar included the proposal that the dinar be held as central bank reserve. (2)

Gold is wealth. Oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in.

The fact that the dollar is still being used as the intermediary numéraire for oil-trade settlement, as the intermediary basic “standard” by which values are measured for oil-trade settlement, gives this dollar paper the backing of oil (oil becomes an indispensable valuable).

Once oil will see no more reason to support/back the dollar, oil  will “openly” shift towards gold and back it (through demand for gold) so as to create the new market for physical gold in association with the gold-friendly Khaleej-dinar numéraire.
(Khaleej (Gulf) dinar is being considered as one of the possibilities for naming the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) single currency.)

On the US dollar, Dr Mahathir said last week that without gold it had no backing at all and was basically a useless piece of paper and that only the demand for the US dollar to settle trade payments kept its value up. (3)

Hence, in a 05 December 2008 Gulf News column, Dr Syed A. Basher, research economist at Qatar Central Bank, argued, on the one hand, that we should not focus our attention on the movement between a national currency and any major international currency such as the US dollar and, on the other hand, that high and rising inflation in Qatar has caused the dollar peg system to become increasingly unstable.
Based on this evidence, Dr Basher concluded that the existing exchange rate system in Qatar is unsustainable and thus immediate exchange rate reform is needed to prevent exchange-rate distortions caused by the riyal’s peg to the dollar. (4)

We could thus well be on our way to seeing the 29 and 30 December 2008 Muscat, Oman, GCC Summit, where the 2009 Gulf Monetary Council (GMC), a precursor to the 2010 Gulf Central Bank (GCB), will be set up, adopting the Islamic gold dinar as reserve for the Khaleej dinar.

In that case, every increase in the price of gold, that is, every increase in the value of the Islamic gold dinar, will lead to an increase in the value of the Khaleej dinar.
As gold is hiding in oil, every increase in the price of gold, that is, every increase in the value of the Islamic gold dinar, will lead to an increase in the price of oil.
By same token, the present indecently low USA dollar oil prices will immediately come to an end.

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 08 December 2008

NOTES

(1)
2008/12/06
Malaysia wants OIC countries to reconsider gold Dinar for trade
http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Saturday/NewsBreak/20081206162348/Article/index_html

(2)
Mahathir proposes gold dinar as currency for international trade
Muslim News, Thu, 28 Mar 2002 08:10:32 -0000
http://www.freelists.org/archives/news/03-2002/msg00060.html

(3)
November 27, 2008 16:15 PM
Asia Must Initiate Changes To Monetary, Financial Systems
By Mohamad Nasir Yusoff
http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=374756

(4)
Qatar’s currency in need of reform
By Syed A. Basher, Special to Gulf News
Published: December 05, 2008, 23:46
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/08/12/06/10265034.html

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ECB attacks oil producers

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 6th December 2008


Yes, Mr Trichet, the system of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking is abnormal.

We are in a systemic financial crisis. This crisis is due to the phenomena of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking. Our Masters are not planning to replace these phenomena by gold-backed money nor by a full-reserve system. No, they are accusing the past oil prices, which were little higher, of having destabilised the world economy.

1.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering printing money to “solve” the crisis. (1)

I suppose that this cannot possibly lead to inflation and that that’s why on Thursday 04 December 2008, the ECB nevertheless lowered “its” interest rates with 75 basis points to 2.5 percent.

At the question and answer session, following the decision, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet was asked whether the ECB was considering intervention to boost confidence [in the system of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking]. (2)

He replied to other questions that the ECB has to be active and expeditious [at the point of a gun] but that the market situation to which it has to react is subject to permanent changes.

Trichet does thus only react to the problem of the moment. He is not at all interested in solving the problem once and for all by addressing its cause. The existing system of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking must be saved/preserved at all cost.

2.
It was, for instance said Trichet, bad news for inflation and growth when oil and commodity prices went up. It is important, he added, that oil and commodity prices are now at a more reasonable level. This provides for the automatic stabilisation of the global economy. We need automatic stabilisers to ensure the normal functioning of the money market and loan market, said Trichet.

In chapter one of his 1946 book “Economics in One Lesson”, Dr Henry Hazlitt states the lesson as follows: the art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.  http://jim.com/econ/chap01p1.html (3)

Whereas economic textbooks teach that the price of a good is the result of the price level at which supply and demand meet, for Trichet, this discovery process of the “reasonable” price of oil can only function as an automatic stabiliser if the price is low.

As a Reuters analysis by Christopher Johnson put it on Wednesday 03 December 2008:
Low energy prices squeeze investment in the oil industry, reducing future supplies. They discourage energy saving and they destabilize countries dependent on oil exports, making oil in the future more likely to be expensive and even more volatile.
Perhaps most important of all, low energy prices stifle investment in alternative energy, deepening dependence on oil and other hydrocarbons and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. (4)

Trichet only looks at the short-term consequences of the low oil price for one group.
Trichet looks only at the short-term consequences of the low oil price for the consumer.

3.
Subsequent chapters of Dr Hazlitt’s book apply the lesson (the art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups) to different subjects of economics.

Chapter XXIII applies the lesson to “The Mirage of Inflation”. http://jim.com/econ/chap23p1.html

The chapter argues, p. 170, that inflation may bring benefits for short time to favoured groups, but only at the expense of others and in the long run, it brings ruinous consequences to the whole community. It leads to OVEREXPANSION of some industries at the expense of others.
When inflation collapses or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.

Yet the ardour for inflation never dies, says Hazlitt p. 171. It would almost seem as if no country is capable of profiting from the experience of another and no generation will learn from the suffering of another. It is because inflation confuses everything that it is so consistently resorted to.

END OF QUOTES FROM HAZLITT

Instead of addressing the systemic causes of the crisis, instead of addressing the phenomena of worthless digital liquidity and fractional-reserve banking,
our Masters are planning confusion by injecting money in some industries thereby expanding some industries at the expense of others.

In the coming weeks, ALL effects of decades of maladministration by our Masters will appear on stage, one by one. And every time, our Masters will applaud by throwing money at the symptoms (and by “printing” digital liquidity in order to achieve this).

As Trichet put it on Thursday:
The ECB will do all it can to put [the system of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking] back on its feet and achieve the normal functioning of the money market and loan market, but Trichet conceded that we have to wait and see whether the measures we enacted will work.

How could they work? The crisis is systemic. The measures only vaguely deal with the symptoms.

Trichet concluded that the situation (thus also the low price of oil?) is abnormal. He thus did not say that the circumstances were exceptional.

Yes, Mr Trichet, the system of worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking is abnormal.

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 06 December 2008

NOTES

(1)
ECB cuts to 2.5pc and mulls “printing money”
The European Central Bank has slashed interest rates by three-quarters of a point to 2.5pc in the boldest move since the launch of monetary union and hinted at revolutionary action to head off a severe slump next year as the economic crisis ravages the car, steel, and machine tool industries.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:17PM GMT 04 Dec 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/interestrates/3551387/ECB-cuts-to-2.5pc-and-mulls-printing-money.html
SNIPS
“Tensions have increasingly spilled over from the financial sector to the real economy,” Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s president, said. He added: “Global and euro-area demand are likely to be dampened for a protracted period of time.”
+
The Maastricht Treaty prohibits the ECB from injecting stimulus by purchasing the government debt of the eurozone’s fifteen states debt – a method known as “monetizing the deficit”, or more crudely as “printing money”.
But it can achieve the same effect by mopping up sovereign debt, mortgage securities, or even company debt on the open market, as the Fed has already begun to do. At the moment the ECB accepts some of these assets as collateral in exchange for loans, but it has not yet hit the atomic button by buying them outright with its own freshly

(2)
Transcript of the questions asked and the answers given by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, Lucas Papademos, Vice-President of the ECB, and Guy Quaden, Governor, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique
http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2008/html/is081204.en.html
SNIPS
We have also to take into account that it was very bad news that the prices of oil and commodities were going up and up as they did. It was very bad news for inflation, it was very bad news for growth, because it had a depressing influence which was considerable. Now, when the same prices are going down, it is good for inflation because we are back to much more appropriate price levels for commodities and oil.
+
it is very important that oil and commodity prices are at a much more reasonable level. This is extremely important because this is one of the automatic stabilisers that we have at the level of the global economy and at the level of its various components, including the euro area economy. So, everything that permits this market to function as smoothly as possible is welcome.

(3)
Henry Hazlitt, “Economics in One Lesson”, New York: Arlington House Publishers, 1978, 2nd ed. (first ed. published 1946 by Harper and Brothers)

(4)
Cheap oil: short-term good, long-term dangerous
Wed Dec 3, 2008 5:55am EST
By Christopher Johnson – Analysis
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE4B22QM20081203?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

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central banks in Europe must today halt hyper-expansions

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 4th December 2008

Central banks of Europe, please listen !

Call a halt to monetary hyper-expansions.

The Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank, the European Central Bank and others have meetings today where they will decide the level of interest rates.

Interest rates are not the price of money. Interest rates are the price spreads between the stages of production.

Influential voices are calling on central banks to be bold in cutting interest rates today, says the Financial Times this morning.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4bd8c730-c16b-11dd-831e-000077b07658.html

The degree of indebtedness has however resulted in confidence disappearing from the markets.

Will zero interest rates bring confidence back?

The monetary hyper-expansions have not yet resulted in price-inflation because many of the digital currency units have been sterilised through trillions of derivatives.

The dollar financial industry is always in need of ever lower interest rates because it needs ever more money in order to keep its murderous comedy alive.

It is this maladministration of its reserve-currency status by the dollar regime which has caused the present crisis.

Interest rates are no longer the price spreads between the stages of production. They are now the ever lower price of digital liquidity the dollar regime needs in order to (financially) destroy this planet.

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Game Over – the lunatics are running the asylum

Posted by Ivo Cerckel on 4th December 2008

The Times carries two contradictory articles this morning.

One by Anatole Kaletsky in which it is being argued that dramatic interest rates can shift the economic paralysis. (1)

And one by David Wighton in which it is being argued that cutting interest rates is not going to increase the quantity of credit available because the mechanism that turns the cuts is broken. (2)

If as Wighton argues, the mechanism is broken, how can Kaletsky then argue that dramatic interest rates can repair the mechanism? (2)

The root cause of the economic downturn is the credit crunch, writes Wighton.

Why does Wighton not elaborate on the causes of the credit crunch?

Is the credit crunch an Act of God?

Or was the credit caused by worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking?

No for Wighton, it is not necessary to inquire into the causes of the credit crunch.

Both worthless digital liquidity and fraudulent fractional-reserve banking deny reality.

Does Anatole Kaletsky really think that dramatic interest-rate cuts will bring the financial system back in line with reality?

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 04 December 2008

NOTES

(1)
Irresistible financial force will prevail
Anatole Kaletsky
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article5282306.ece
Economic paralysis seems like an immovable object. But dramatic interest rate cuts can shift it

(2)
Rate cuts won’t fix broken mechanism
David Wighton, Business Editor’s commentary
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5282819.ece
Cutting interest rates is not going to increase quantity of credit available – the mechanism that turns the cuts is broken

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