Le Sommet de Mascate, ces lundi et mardi, a mis en place le Conseil Monétaire du Golfe pour 2009, précurseur de la Banque centrale du Golfe (BCG) qui elle sera existera à partir de 2010.

En ce qui concerne les réserves d’or de la BCG, il a été dit à la conférence de presse :
In reply to a question on gold reserves for the GCC {Gulf Co-operation Council, Conseil de coopération du Golfe (CCG)) Central Bank, [Mohammad Al Mazroui, assistant secretary-general for economic affairs] said “that is a matter to be pondered over later.”We first have to decide on the location of the Central Bank, then the Central Bank and Monetary Council will have to decide on the gold reserves for the Central Bank,” he said.
(GCC leaders approve Monetary Union as members seek to host Central Bank By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief Published: December 30, 2008, 23:46
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Economy/10271396.html )

L’or se cache dans le pétrole parce que le pétrole est la seule denrée qui soit assez vaste pour que l’or puisse s’y cacher.

Si le CCG avait ouvertement décidé d’immédiatement mettre les réserves d’or du CCG en commun, de faire de ces réserves les réserves du Khaliji, la future monnaie unique du Golfe, et de coter ces réserves périodiquement au prix de marché et non au modèle de 42 dollars tel le trésor américain, chaque augmentation du prix de l’or aurait fait augmenter le prix du pétrole. Du même coup, le prix du pétrole remonterait.

Le CCG ne l’a pas fait ouvertement, mais peut-être l’a-t-il quand-même fait.

L’Opep pourrait tenir une réunion exceptionnelle avant le mois de mars si les cours pétroliers continuaient de chuter, a déclaré mardi [23 décembre] le président de l’Opep Chakib Khelil. Un sommet économique arabe qui doit se tenir les 19 et 20 janvier au Koweit et auquel doivent participer certains ministres de l’Opep pourrait être l’occasion pour l’organisation de réexaminer la situation des prix, a indiqué le président. http://www.agefi.fr/articles/reaction_validee-1058172.html

Le Sommet Economique arabe sera précédé le 14 janvier 2009 d’une réunion des ministres arabes des finances et des gouverneurs des banques centrales arabes.
http://www.uaedailynews.com/middleeast/126.htm

Afin de parachever le développement économique et social arabe, l’Opep pourrait, au Sommet

Le Sommet Economique arabe sera précédé le 14 janvier 2009 d’une réunion des ministres arabes des finances et des gouverneurs des banques centrales arabes.

Afin de parachever le développement économique et social arabe, l’Opep pourrait, au Sommet Economique Arabe à Koweit, alors décider d’immédiatement facturer son pétrole en Khaliji.

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, le 31 décembre 2008

In reply to a question on gold reserves for the GCC Central Bank, [Mohammad Al Mazroui, assistant secretary-general for economic affairs] said “that is a matter to be pondered over later.”We first have to decide on the location of the Central Bank, then the Central Bank and Monetary Council will have to decide on the gold reserves for the Central Bank,” he said.

(GCC leaders approve Monetary Union as members seek to host Central Bank By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief Published: December 30, 2008, 23:46
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Economy/10271396.html )

Tue, 30 Dec 2008 | 11:13 GMT
GCC monetary union agreement ready for leaders’ signature – Al-Shimali
KUNA (Kuwait News Agency)
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20081230104902/GCC%20Monetary%20Union%20Deal%20To%20Take%20Force%20By%20Dec%20%2709
SNIP
MUSCAT: Finance and Economy Ministers of six Arab Gulf countries have completed the final formula of the GCC monetary union and referred it to their leaders to sign it, Kuwait finance minister Mustafa Al-Shimali said Tuesday.
“We have discussed the final draft of the monetary union agreement thus paving way for (GCC leaders to) signing it to see the light at a maximum date of December 12, 2009,” Al-Shimali told KUNA after meeting with finance and economy ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
The monetary union is expected to pave way for the single currency.
Al-Shimali said the ministers have also approved the statute of the monetary council, to be followed by the creation of the Gulf central bank, and was also referred for the GCC leaders for approval.
The creation of the central bank will be mandated with establishing the single currency.
But, Al-Shimali noted, the single currency would be dealt with at a later stage because it has unique legal status. He did not elaborate.

China to experiment with trade settlement in yuan
http://ph.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20081224/tbs-china-economy-exports-21231dd.html
SNIP
BEIJING, Dec 24 – China on Wednesday took a baby step on the road to making the yuan an international currency when it promised to allow its use in trade between a few provinces and neighbouring states.
The State Council, or cabinet, said the yuan could be used for the settlement of trade between the factory-rich Pearl River and Yangtze River Deltas and the Chinese territories of Hong Kong and Macau.
It also said that members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would be permitted to use yuan in their trade with China’s southeastern provinces of Guangxi and Yunnan.

room for creative Omani accounting

1.
Does monetary union equate single currency?

Could it be that Oman is opting out of the Gulf single currency, but not out of Gulf Monetary Union?

We’ll know by Wednesday morning.

I’m still keeping my fingers crossed, arguing that for Oman, Gulf Monetary Union is about the marking to market of the gold reserves of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states by the Gulf Monetary Authority / Gulf Monetary Council.

For Oman, GMU is MTM of gold reserves by GMA/GMC
September 16th, 2008 by Ivo Cerckel
http://bphouse.com/honest_money/2008/09/16/for-oman-gmu-is-mtm-of-gold-reserves-by-gmagmc/
[If the link does not work, try copy and paste it in your browser.]

I still have one or two GMT+8 nights to dream

2.
We still don’t know “what” we don’t know.

This is fortunate because otherwise the present salami-crash in slices would immediately and abruptly come to a halt and become a real crash into the unknown.

Whereas the USA Treasury marks its gold reserves to the model of USD 42, the European Central Bank marks its gold reserves to market (-price).

Marking to model versus marking to market.

We don’t know what’s happening. This means confusion. Confusion means room for creative Omani accounting.

Only full disclosure of toxic debts will get the West moving again
It has been a year of financial explosions.
by Liam Halligan
Last Updated: 7:34PM GMT 28 Dec 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/3982447/Only-full-disclosure-of-toxic-debts-will-get-the-West-moving-again.html
SNIP
The money markets are locked because the banks don’t trust each other. Even they don’t know how much toxic debt is out there – and which bank could be the next to fall. That’s why the spread between the London Inter-bank Offered Rate and overnight interest rate swaps of the same maturity remains so wide – and wider in the UK, now, than either the States or the eurozone.
The crucial inter-bank market will remain frozen until the banks are forced, under threat of prosecution, to reveal the true extent of their sub-prime liabilities. Such “full disclosure” won’t be easy – involving the exploration of millions of complex derivative contracts, often across borders – but it simply must be done. UNSNIP

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 29 December 2008

Unbacked paper currencies also!

We still don’t know “what” we don’t know.

This is fortunate because otherwise the salami-crash in slices would immediately and abruptly come to a halt.  (Guess in what direction it will move after the halt.)

Only full disclosure of toxic debts will get the West moving again
It has been a year of financial explosions.
by Liam Halligan
Last Updated: 7:34PM GMT 28 Dec 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/3982447/Only-full-disclosure-of-toxic-debts-will-get-the-West-moving-again.html
SNIP
The money markets are locked because the banks don’t trust each other. Even they don’t know how much toxic debt is out there – and which bank could be the next to fall. That’s why the spread between the London Inter-bank Offered Rate and overnight interest rate swaps of the same maturity remains so wide – and wider in the UK, now, than either the States or the eurozone.
The crucial inter-bank market will remain frozen until the banks are forced, under threat of prosecution, to reveal the true extent of their sub-prime liabilities. Such “full disclosure” won’t be easy – involving the exploration of millions of complex derivative contracts, often across borders – but it simply must be done.

GCC summit to focus on global financial crisis
P.K. Abdul Ghafour | Arab News
Sunday 28 December 2008 (01 Muharram 1430)
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=117596&d=28&m=12&y=2008
SNIP
During the two-day summit the GCC leaders are expected to approve an agreement on monetary union. “This will lead to the formation of a monetary authority that will set out technical details of the new GCC currency, its name and form,” a GCC source said.
Mohammed Al-Mazroui, assistant secretary-general, said the topic of monetary union would be on top of the agenda. “The summit is likely to come up with a final action plan for the unified monetary regime for the GCC states,” he said.
Asked whether the GCC countries would be able to stick to the deadline of January 2010 for achieving the unified monetary union, Al-Mazroui said: “We are very close to that already. The ensuing summit will come out with a definite answer for this.”
He said the summit would also come out with the details of the new unified GCC monetary authority. “The final draft for the GCC Monetary Authority has already been prepared, and it will be submitted for approval at the summit.”
Asked whether the new unified currency would be pegged to the US dollar, he said: “This is something that the new monetary authority will decide.”
He said five of the six GCC members — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait — had already announced their resolve to join the GCC monetary union. Oman has, however, said it would stay out of it in the beginning.
Asked whether Kuwait’s move to link its currency to a basket of currencies would have any impact on the unified currency, he said: “These two (unified currency and currency pegging) are different issues.”
Last September, GCC finance ministers approved the framework for the monetary union but left questions over the timing of the launch of the single currency unanswered.
UNSNIP

Ivo Cerckel

OPEC President Chakib Khelil told Reuters on Friday 19 December 2008 that some OPEC oil ministers will be able to consult further on the state of the market at the Arab Economic Summit to be held in Kuwait on 19-20 January 2009. (1)

The Summit’s aim is to find a comprehensive joint Arab vision to face the economic challenges, by accelerating the Arab joint market establishment. (2)

The 14 January 2009 preparatory meeting for the Summit will be a meeting for Arab Finance Ministers and governors of central banks. (3)

The 29 and 30 December 2008 Muscat, Oman, Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) Summit will set up the 2009 Gulf Monetary Council (GMC), a precursor to the 2010 Gulf Central Bank (GCB).

Gold is hiding in oil because oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in.
If the GCC Summit will pool the GCC gold reserves, make this pool the reserves of the Khaliji, the GCC single currency, and periodically mark these reserves to market (-price), then every increase in the price of gold will automatically lead to an increase in the price of oil. By same token, the present indecently low USA dollar-denominated oil prices will immediately come to an end.

At the Kuwait Arab Economic Summit, the decision could then be taken to immediately price oil in Honest Money, to immediately price oil in Khaliji.

That’s how the Arab Economic Summit to be held in Kuwait on 19-20 January 2009 could be the cornerstone for Arab economic and social development.

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 22 December 2008

(1)
OPEC president says oil price has found floor
Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:37am GMT
http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKENG00045920081219

(2)
Determined to make Kuwait economic summit a success – official …
Dec 21, 2008
]http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093225534

(3)
Kuwaiti official visits Damascus to discuss Arab Economic Summit
21 December, 2008 06:10:00
http://www.uaedailynews.com/middleeast/126.html

GCC = Gulf Co-operation Council

Lowest since Feb. 04
FRONT PAGE – Saturday, 20 December 2008 – 22 Thul-Hijjah 1429 H
http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2008122024647
SNIP
LONDON – US light crude for January delivery fell $2.64 to $33.58 a barrel early Friday. It earlier touched $33.44, the lowest since early February 2004.

COMMENT – Muscat Summit must pool GCC gold reserves
As oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in, the 29 and 30 December 2008 Muscat GCC Summit should, in order to achieve higher oil prices, decide to immediately pool the GCC gold reserves, make this pool the reserves of the future Khaliji and periodically mark these reserves to market (-price). In that case, every increase in the price of gold will automatically lead to an increase in the price of oil.

Muscat Summit will see launch of GCC Monetary Fund — secretary general
KUNA (Kuwait News Agency)
http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidKUN0016081220081515/Muscat%20Summit%20will%20see%20launch%20of%20GCC%20Monetary%20Fund
SNIP
RIYADH, Dec 20 (KUNA) — The GCC Summit in Muscat will see the launch of the GCC Monetary Fund, as well as a discussion of all obstacles in the way of economic cooperation and integration among the six member states, said GCC Secretary General Abdulrahman Al-Attiyah on Saturday.
In a statement published by Okath newspaper, Al-Attiyah said the economic dossier would feature strongly in the summit, which was expected to launch the GCC Monetary Union and its Monetary Council, thereby paving the way for establishing the GCC Central Bank.

Ivo:
No more talk of a single currency.

Only of the marking to market of the GCC gold reserves by the GCC Monetary Council, the precursor to the GCC Central Bank

That’s FreeGold.

No effort is being spared by the DIFC to prevent the GCC from adopting Honest Money. By the same token, the DIFC wants oil prices to forever remain indecently low.

The 29 and 30 December 2008 Muscat, Oman, Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) Summit will set up the 2009 Gulf Monetary Council (GMC), a precursor to the 2010 Gulf Central Bank (GCB).

The current worldwide economic situation is due to the phenomena of unbacked paper money (the metaphor of “printing” money is still being used for worthless digital liquidity representing “money”) and fractional-reserve banking.

The USA Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes to keep these phenomena alive. As USA president-elect Barack Obama told reporters this week, after the decision of the USA central bank to lower interest rates to ZERO, the USA is running out of the traditional ammunition that’s used in a recession, which is to lower interest rates. This, said Obama, underscores the case for a big fiscal stimulus. (1)

Obama is thus predicting more free zerodollars, created through the printing press, until the zerodollar vase will break.

Still, in an “Economic Note”, published on 17 December 2008, the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) calls for the GCC single currency, the Khaliji, to be pegged to a basket of global currencies comprising the soon to be broken USA zerodollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. (2)

The basket would not only comprise the zerodollar. The zerodollar would determine FORTY-FIVE PERCENT of the basket’s value. (3)

According to the final draft, however, the GMC/GCB will be independent from the governments of the member countries and its aim will be to “maintain price stability”, a senior Gulf official said last month. (3 again)

How will the GMC/GCB be able to maintain price stability if the Khaliji is pegged to a basket of currencies? The question is difficult enough to answer. The question becomes impossible to answer when one realises that almost half of the basket’s value will be determined by the USA zerodollar, which is soon to go lalala.

Price stability concerns the relationship between a currency and a basket of goods and services.

How will the GMC/GCB be able to maintain price stability, if the Khaliji is pegged to a basket of currencies, that is, if the value of the Khaliji is itself determined by a basket of currencies (half of which basket is soon to go lalala)?

How will the stability between those two baskets be achieved?

The Muscat GCC Summit later this month should therefore decide to immediately pool the GCC gold reserves, make this pool the reserves of the Khaliji and periodically mark these reserves to market (-price).

In that case, every increase in the price of gold, will lead to an increase in the value (of the reserves) of the Khaliji.

Gold is hiding in oil because oil is the only commodity in the world that is large enough for gold to hide in.

If the Muscat GCC Summit decides to immediately pool the GCC gold reserves, make this pool the reserves of the Khaliji and periodically mark these reserves to market (-price),
then every increase in the price of gold will automatically lead to an increase in the price of oil.

By the same token, the present indecently low USA zerodollar-denominated oil prices in lalala-land will immediately come to an end.

The proceeds from the oil sales can then be converted into Islamic gold dinar to complement the GMC/GCB’s gold reserves. (4)

That’s the way to achieve Honest Money.

But the DIFC prefers to concentrate its efforts on its hopeless attempt to keep the zero-paper-money house of cards standing for a few more seconds.

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 18 December 2008

NOTES

(1)
Fed slashes rates to near zero
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: December 17 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 17 2008 02:00
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4760824-cbdb-11dd-ba02-000077b07658.html

(2)
DIFC Economic Note Recommends Pegging GCC Common Currency to a Basket of Currencies
Press Release.
17 December 2008
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20081217115746/DIFC%3A%20Peg%20GCC%20Common%20Currency%20to%20Basket

(3)
DIFC report urges end to Gulf’s dollar peg
by Daliah Merzaban on Wednesday, 17 December 2008
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/541423

(4)
Islamic gold dinar, Oil, and Khaleej dinar – first exploration
December 8th, 2008 by Ivo Cerckel
http://bphouse.com/honest_money/2008/12/08/islamic-gold-dinar-oil-and-khaleej-dinar-%E2%80%93-first-exploration/ – if the link foes not work, try copy and paste it in your browser

On Tuesday 16 December 2008, the Kuwait Times reported that inflation is surging in Saudi Arabia. (1)

One way to control inflation is to raise interest rates.

On Wednesday 17 December 2008, the Kuwait Times nevertheless reported that Saudi Arabia cut its interest rates “as the world’s largest oil exporter feels the repercussions of the global economic slowdown.” (2)

There is a Hadith of Prophet Muhammed (Peace and Prayers Be Upon Him) in the Sahih Muslim which teaches:
“Abu Said Al Khudri reported Allah’s messenger as saying: “gold for gold, silver for silver, wheat for wheat, barley for barley, dates for dates, and salt for salt. (When a transaction is) like for like, payment being made on the spot, then, if anyone gives more or asks more, he has dealt in riba, the receiver and the giver being equally guilty.”

This Hadith of Prophet Muhammed establishes two things:

ONE ‘money’ in Islam is either precious metals such as gold and silver, or commodities such as wheat, barley, dates and salt.

TWO when gold, silver, wheat, barley, dates and salt were used as money, their value was ‘inside’ and not outside’ the money. Hence, it is established that ‘money’ in Islam must possess intrinsic value. (3)

Gold, silver, wheat, barley, dates and salt are no longer being used as money.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia is using interest rates.

And therefore, Saudi Arabia has lost all direction.

Ivo Cerckel
Siquijor, 17 December 2008

(1)
Saudi consumers urge action on high prices
Published Date: December 16, 2008
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=NjE0MTc0MzUz
SNIP
Like other countries in the Gulf Arab region, Saudi Arabia has been battling a surge in inflation which peaked at almost 11 percent in the summer but has eased only slightly since then to 10.35 percent in September.

(2)
Saudi cuts interest rates by 0.5 percent
Published Date: December 17, 2008
http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=NjYwNzUyMzQ2
SNIP
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s central bank yesterday slashed its key interest rate by 0.5 percent as the world’s largest oil exporter feels the repercussions of the global economic slowdown, bankers said. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) reduced its repurchase rate to 2.5 percent from 3.0 percent, the fourth cut in its benchmark rate since October. The move comes ahead of a meeting by the US Federal Reserve on Tuesday expected to further reduce US interest rates, and as Saudi Arabia’s economy slows on the back of a sharp fall in oil prices.

(3)
Imran N. Hosein, “Explaining the Disappearance of Money with Intrinsic Value”, paper delivered at the International Conference on the Gold Dinar Economy, held in Kuala Lumpur on 24 and 25 July 2007, p. 1